{"id":10383,"date":"2017-07-13T12:13:21","date_gmt":"2017-07-13T19:13:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=10383"},"modified":"2017-07-13T12:13:21","modified_gmt":"2017-07-13T19:13:21","slug":"west-can-neither-live-with-nor-take-out-north-korean-nukes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/west-can-neither-live-with-nor-take-out-north-korean-nukes\/","title":{"rendered":"West Can Neither Live with nor Take Out North Korean Nukes"},"content":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

It\u2019s time for the U.S. and its allies to prepare for a tough, messy confrontation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

North Korea recently test-launched a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

When North Korea eventually builds a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, it will double down on its well-known shakedown of feigning indifference to American deterrence while promising to take out Los Angeles, San Francisco, or Seattle unless massive aid is delivered to Pyongyang.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Kim Jong-un rightly assumes that wealthy Western nations would prefer to pay bribe money than suffer the loss of a city \u2014 and that they have plenty of cash for such concessions. He is right that the medicine of taking out Kim\u2019s missiles is considered by Western strategists to be even worse than the disease of living with a lunatic regime that has nukes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

No wonder that the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations had few answers to North Korea\u2019s serial lying and deceit about its nuclear intentions.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sanctions were eventually dropped or watered down, either on reports of the mass starvation of innocent North Korean civilians or on false promises of better North Korean behavior.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

China publicly promised to help rein in its unhinged client while privately doing nothing. Apparently, Beijing found a rabid North Korean government useful in bothering rivals such as the Japanese and South Koreans while keeping the U.S. off balance in Asia and the Pacific. The dynamic economies and pacifism of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan were taken for granted by China as easy targets for coercion and blackmail.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Russia is never any help. Under President Vladimir Putin, Russian foreign policy is reductive: Whatever causes the United States and its allies a major headache is by definition welcomed.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

There seems to be zero chance of a North Korean coup or a Chinese intervention to remove Kim. The brainwashed North Korean population is cut off from global news and knows nothing other than three generations of Kim family dictators. The military junta that surrounds Kim is likely as aggressive as its leader. These functionaries see his survival as the only guarantee of their own privilege and influence.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A preemptory strike might not get all of North Korea\u2019s nuclear missiles and could prompt a conventional response that would wreck nearby Seoul \u2014 a scenario about which North Korea openly brags.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pyongyang believes that only the Israelis are wild enough to preempt and bomb neighboring nuclear facilities, as they did in 1981 against Iraq and again in 2007 against Syria. And yet Israel attacked only because neither Iraq nor Syria had created deterrence by possession of a single deliverable nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

What are the bad choices for the Western alliance in defanging North Korea before it miscalculates and sends a missile that prompts a war?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Sanctions have in the past crippled Pyongyang. But this time around they should not be lifted, despite the prospect of ensuing chaos in North Korea. It may be tragic that a captive population suffers for the lunacy of its leader, but such misery is still preferable to an all-out war.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Nor should China be exempt from accompanying stiff trade restrictions. Almost every weapon component in the hands of North Korea either came directly from China or was purchased by cash earned through Chinese trade and remittances. Certainly, China would not allow South Korea to send missiles its way along with promises of nuking Beijing while the U.S. kept still about the provocation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S. need to coordinate a massive missile-defense project aimed at ending North Korean assumptions that even one of its missiles has a chance to reach its intended target. Such a Marshall Plan\u2013like investment would also send a message to China that its own nuclear deterrent could be compromised and nullified by the defensive efforts of its immediate neighbors. China has made life difficult for the U.S. and its Asian allies, and it should learn that the allies could make things even more problematic for China.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

None of our allies in Asia and the Pacific wish to develop nuclear weapons, both for historic and economic reasons. But the United States should inform Russia and China that allied democracies in the region may choose to develop a nuclear deterrent to stop North Korean antics \u2014 a development that would prove disastrous to both Russian and Chinese strategic planning.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Asia is already a dangerous place, with both Indian and Pakistani nuclear missiles and a likely nuclear Iran in the not-so-distant future. Do Moscow and Beijing wish to add three or four more nuclear powers near their borders?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The current danger is not just limited to North Korea. Iran, a beneficiary of North Korean nuclear assistance, is watching how far Kim can go. It will certainly make the necessary strategic adjustments if he succeeds in shaking down the Western world.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

We are nearing an existential showdown, as failed efforts at bribery and appeasement have run their course.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Only a tough, messy confrontation now can prevent a disastrous war later on.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/article\/449404\/north-korean-nukes-west-deterrent-insufficient<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review   It\u2019s time for the U.S. and its allies to prepare for a tough, messy confrontation.   North Korea recently test-launched a long-range missile capable of reaching Alaska.   When North Korea eventually builds a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, it will double down on its well-known […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[1097,275,346,116,1,102,34],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2Ht","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":10870,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/will-nuclear-north-korea-survive-2018\/","url_meta":{"origin":10383,"position":0},"title":"Will Nuclear North Korea Survive 2018?","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 8, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 Given several rapidly developing geopolitical factors, North Korea may look much different by the end of the new year. \u00a0 For good or evil, we may see radical changes in North Korea in 2018. \u00a0 The beefed-up United Nations sanctions by midyear could\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Trump"","block_context":{"text":"Trump","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/trump\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10977,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/whos-really-winning-the-north-korea-standoff\/","url_meta":{"origin":10383,"position":1},"title":"Who\u2019s Really Winning the North Korea Standoff?","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 15, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review There have been wild reports that the United States is considering a \u201cbloody nose\u201d preemptive attack of some sort on North Korea\u2019s nuclear arsenal. Such rumors are unlikely to prove true. Preemptive attacks usually are based on the idea that things will so worsen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "North Korea"","block_context":{"text":"North Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/north-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10414,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-korean-games-of-thrones\/","url_meta":{"origin":10383,"position":2},"title":"The Korean Games of Thrones","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 25, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 The time for pious American lectures is over. \u00a0 North Korea North Korea seeks respect on the cheap \u2014 and attention and cash \u2014 that it cannot win the old-fashioned way by the long, hard work of achieving a dynamic economy or an\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "South Korea"","block_context":{"text":"South Korea","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/south-korea\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10573,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/throwing-away-the-russian-card\/","url_meta":{"origin":10383,"position":3},"title":"Throwing Away the Russian Card","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 13, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson National Review The love-hate relation with Putin, from the Obama-era red reset button to the current collusion hysteria, has been a disaster. \u201cThey [the North Koreans] will eat grass but will not stop their program as long as they do not feel safe.\u201d\u2014 Vladimir Putin, Beijing,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Putin"","block_context":{"text":"Putin","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/putin\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11078,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/our-long-history-of-misjudging-north-korea\/","url_meta":{"origin":10383,"position":4},"title":"Our Long History of Misjudging North Korea","author":"victorhanson","date":"March 23, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review There\u2019s a lot to learn from seventy years of failure to stop the Kim regimes\u2019 aggression. North Korea has befuddled the United States and its Asian allies ever since North Korean leader Kim Il-sung launched the invasion of South Korea in June 1950. Prior\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "MacArthur"","block_context":{"text":"MacArthur","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/macarthur\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10690,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/north-korea-knowns-and-unknowns\/","url_meta":{"origin":10383,"position":5},"title":"North Korea Knowns and Unknowns","author":"victorhanson","date":"October 26, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 We are in the middle, not at the end, of a long North Korean crisis. \u00a0 No one really knows all that much about North Korea\u2019s nuclear or conventional military capability or its strategic agenda. Are its nuclear missiles reliably lethal, are they\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Seoul"","block_context":{"text":"Seoul","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/seoul\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10383"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10383"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10383\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10384,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10383\/revisions\/10384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}