{"id":10070,"date":"2017-04-07T10:26:59","date_gmt":"2017-04-07T17:26:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/?p=10070"},"modified":"2017-04-07T10:26:59","modified_gmt":"2017-04-07T17:26:59","slug":"ancient-laws-modern-wars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ancient-laws-modern-wars\/","title":{"rendered":"Ancient Laws, Modern Wars"},"content":{"rendered":"
by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review<\/em><\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
After eight years of withdrawal, what rules should the U.S. follow to effectively reassert itself in world affairs?<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The most dangerous moments in foreign affairs often come after a major power seeks to reassert its lost deterrence.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
The United States may be entering just such a perilous transitional period.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Rightly or wrongly, China, Iran, North Korea, Russia, and Middle East-based terrorists concluded after 2009 that the U.S. saw itself in decline and preferred a recession from world affairs.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
In that void, rival states were emboldened, assuming that America thought it could not \u2014 or should not \u2014 any longer exercise the sort of political and military leadership it had demonstrated in the past.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Enemies thought the U.S. was more focused on climate change, United Nations initiatives, resets, goodwill gestures to enemies such as Iran and Cuba, and soft-power race, class, and gender agendas than on protecting and upholding longtime U.S. alliances and global rules.<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
In reaction, North Korea increased its missile launches and loudly promised nuclear destruction of the West and its allies.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Russia violated its obligations under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and absorbed borderlands of former Soviet republics.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Iran harassed American ships in the Persian Gulf and issued serial threats against the U.S.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
China built artificial island bases in the South China Sea to send a message about its imminent management of Asian commerce.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
In Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State killed thousands in medieval fashion and sponsored terrorist attacks inside Western countries.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Amid such growing chaos, a return to former (and normal) U.S. deterrence would inflame such aggressors and be considered provocative by provocateurs.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
Accordingly, we should remember a few old rules for these scary new crises on the horizon.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
1. Avoid making verbal threats that are not serious and backed up by force. After eight years of pseudo-red lines, step-over lines, deadlines, and \u201cgame changers,\u201d American ultimatums without consequences have no currency and will only invite further aggression.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
2. The unlikely is not impossible. Weaker powers can and do start wars. Japan in December 1941 attacked the world\u2019s two largest navies based on the false impression that great powers which sought to avoid war did so because they were weak. That current American military power is overwhelming does not mean delusional nations will always agree that it is so \u2014 or that it will be used.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
3. Big wars can start from small beginnings. No one thought an obscure Austrian archduke\u2019s assassination in 1914 would lead to some 18 million dead by 1918. Consider any possible military engagement a precursor to far more. Have a backup plan \u2014 and another backup plan for the backup plan.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
4. Do not confuse tactics with strategy. Successfully shooting down a rogue airplane, blowing up an incoming speedboat, or taking an ISIS-held Syrian city is not the same as finding a way to win and end a war. Strategic victory is time-consuming and usually involves drawing on economic, political, and cultural superiority as well as military success to ensure that a defeated opponent stays defeated \u2014 and agrees that further aggression is counterproductive.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
5. Human nature is unchanging \u2014 and not always admirable. Like it or not, neutrals more often flock to crude strength than to elegant and humane weakness.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
6. Majestic pronouncements and utopian speechifying impress global elites and the international media, but they mean nothing to rogue nations. Such states instead count up fleets, divisions, and squadrons \u2014 and remember whether a power helps its friends and punishes its enemies. Standing by a flawed ally is always preferable to abandoning one because it can sometimes be bothersome.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
7. Public support for military action hinges mostly on perceived success. Tragically, people will support a dubious but successful intervention more than a noble but bogged-down one. The most fervent prewar supporters of war are often the most likely to bail during the first setback. Never calibrate the wisdom of retaliating or intervening based on initial loud public enthusiasm for it.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
8. War is a harsh distillery of talent. Good leaders and generals in peace are not necessarily skilled in conflict. They can perform as badly in war as good wartime generals do in peace. Assume that the commanders who start a war won\u2019t be there to finish it.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
9. War is rarely started by accident and far more often by mistaken calibrations of relative power. Flawed prewar assessments of comparative weakness and strength are tragically corrected by war \u2014 the final, ugly arbiter of who really was strong and who was weak. Visible expressions of military potential, serious and steady leadership, national cohesion, and economic robustness remind rivals of the futility of war. Loud talk of disarmament and a preference for international policing can encourage foolish risk-takers to miscalculate that war is a good gamble.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
10. Deterrence that prevents war is usually smeared as war-mongering. Appeasement, isolationism, and collaboration that avoid immediate crises but guarantee eventual conflict are usually praised as civilized outreach and humane engagement.<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
\n

Finally, it is always better to be safe and ridiculed than vulnerable and praised.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.nationalreview.com\/article\/446471\/military-deterrence-trumps-leadership-abroad-principles-foreign-policy<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review After eight years of withdrawal, what rules should the U.S. follow to effectively reassert itself in world affairs? The most dangerous moments in foreign affairs often come after a major power seeks to reassert its lost deterrence. The United States may be entering just such a perilous transitional period. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[275,346,375,28,124,126,127,846,116,285,1,347],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p466Sb-2Cq","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":8533,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-four-horsemen-of-a-looming-apocalypse\/","url_meta":{"origin":10070,"position":0},"title":"The Four Horsemen of a Looming Apocalypse","author":"victorhanson","date":"July 14, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Our Four Major Threats: China, Iran, Russia, ISIS-They could all be confronted. But by the Obama administration? by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ National Review Online The U.S. and its allies are faced with four major threats, and they are as diverse and yet as akin as the proverbial apocalyptic horsemen.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/the-world\/china\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"(Photo Illustration: NRO)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/07\/four-horsemen-of-the-apocalypse-c-500x292.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":10738,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/americas-indispensable-friends\/","url_meta":{"origin":10070,"position":1},"title":"America\u2019s Indispensable Friends","author":"victorhanson","date":"November 16, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"By Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review \u00a0 As long as the U.S. remains good to weaker but humane states located in dangerous neighborhoods, it will remain great as well. \u00a0 The world equates American military power with the maintenance of the postwar global order of free commerce, communications, and travel.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Kurds"","block_context":{"text":"Kurds","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/kurds\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":9862,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/the-three-headed-hydra-of-the-middle-east\/","url_meta":{"origin":10070,"position":2},"title":"The Three-Headed Hydra of the Middle East","author":"victorhanson","date":"February 16, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson\/\/ National Review Trump has inherited a matrix of problems that primarily stem from Iran, Russia, and ISIS. The abrupt Obama administration pre-election pullout from Iraq in 2011, along with the administration\u2019s failed reset with Russia and the Iran deal, created a three-headed hydra in the Middle\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "ISIS"","block_context":{"text":"ISIS","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/isis\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3711,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/global-schizophrenia\/","url_meta":{"origin":10070,"position":3},"title":"Global Schizophrenia","author":"victorhanson","date":"January 17, 2007","format":false,"excerpt":"by Victor Davis Hanson Tribune Media Services When it comes to intervening in international affairs, the United States is damned when it does and damned when it doesn't. Critics of U.S. policy are always quick to pounce \u2014 and in this age of globalization, they're only getting more impatient. It's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Janurary 2007"","block_context":{"text":"Janurary 2007","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/archives\/2007\/janurary-2007\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11420,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/obama-won\/","url_meta":{"origin":10070,"position":4},"title":"Obama Won","author":"victorhanson","date":"September 24, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Victor Davis Hanson \/\/ American Greatness By traditional metrics, Barack Obama\u2019s presidency was mostly a failure. The economy, in a new first, never hit annualized growth of 3 percent. His signature domestic policy\u2014Obamacare\u2014caused chaos. Millions lost their coverage and doctors, and paid far more in deductibles and premiums. The stagnant\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Obama"","block_context":{"text":"Obama","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/obama\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6833,"url":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/nuclear-gangbangers\/","url_meta":{"origin":10070,"position":5},"title":"Nuclear Gangbangers","author":"victorhanson","date":"December 12, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Hostile countries with nuclear capabilities have the upper hand on the global police. by Victor Davis Hanson \/\/\u00a0National Review Online\u00a0 The gangster state of North Korea became a nuclear power in 2006\u201307, despite lots of foreign aid aimed at precluding just such proliferation \u2014 help usually not otherwise accorded such\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Nuclear Warfare"","block_context":{"text":"Nuclear Warfare","link":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/ahref=\/index.php\/categories\/angry-reader\/categorylink\/a\/war\/nuclear-warfare\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/12\/481px-Trident_C4_first_launch-240x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10070"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10070"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10070\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10071,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10070\/revisions\/10071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10070"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10070"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/victorhanson.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10070"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}