Victor Davis Hanson
American Greatness
Many narratives swirl around the U.S. war with Iran as the November 3 midterm elections loom.
The Left is giddy with confidence that Democrats may take control of Congress. It is therefore planning a circus of impeachments, lawfare, and investigations to neuter the last two years of the Trump administration.
High gas prices and the current unpopularity of the Iran conflict, coupled with the historical reality that the president’s party has lost seats in Congress in 39 of the last 41 midterm elections, have convinced Democrats that they could win enough seats to cut off funds for the war.
Yet the elections are still seven weeks away, and the sheer number of known unknowns ensures an uncertain outcome.
Every side is now gaming the midterms.
The Democrats believe the unpopular war can at last halt Trump’s momentum and are already declaring it all but lost.
The Iranian theocracy agrees.
It will do its best to ratchet up tensions with a series of October surprises in hopes that Trump loses control of Congress and the United States reverts to familiar Democratic policies of ending sanctions and downplaying Iran’s race toward nuclear weapons.
Its leaders also remember Barack Obama’s “hands-off” policy when a million Iranians took to the streets during the Green Revolution of 2009. Then-President Obama remained silent as thousands of protesters were jailed and killed.
As for Trump, he remains enigmatic and says only that the war will likely end shortly after the midterms.
Trump could simply mean that Iran is on the ropes and the regime cannot survive much more than two months.
Or Trump may be hinting that after the midterms, regardless of who controls Congress, he will be free of electoral pressures and able to resume military operations to accelerate the theocracy’s ongoing economic ruin.
But it is often forgotten that two other groups may also be gaming the midterms with October surprises of their own—and in quite different ways.
If Iranian dissidents—35,000 of whom were killed by their own government in January—believe that a Democratic takeover of Congress would benefit the murderous regime they hate, then they may face very different deadlines and renewed incentives to resist.
The embattled opposition, suffering existential food and energy shortages, might conclude that if the regime is tottering in October, this may be its last chance to overthrow it before Democrats restrain Trump and spare the hated mullahs.
The same mindset might be embraced by some 10–15 million restive Iranian Kurds, who periodically resist the theocracy in Tehran.
If they, too, believe that ascendant post-midterm Democrats might defund the current American strikes against the theocracy, or that Trump will eventually be pressured into ending American involvement, then they may see overthrowing the hated regime as a now-or-never proposition.
The point is not what might actually happen if the Democratic opposition controls Congress or otherwise pressures Trump this fall to end the conflict.
The key, instead, is the perception that it would.
There are still more known unknowns.
This remains a strange conflict in which almost no news emerges from Iran. The United States has used no ground troops. There are no embedded correspondents. Western media are largely barred from Iran unless they regurgitate theocratic propaganda.
Thus, no one knows the true extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear, industrial, and military complexes.
Nor do Westerners know precisely how much the new sanctions, secondary boycotts, strangulating blockades, and frozen foreign assets have further weakened an already crippled regime—and driven a starving, fuel-starved, and furious populace to desperate measures.
It is understandable why the bloody popular uprisings of early 2026 failed against an oil-rich Iran whose half-century-old, half-trillion-dollar military-industrial complex was still largely intact.
Not now.
The theocracy is now vastly diminished after months of Israeli and American bombing and crushing new sanctions. Moreover, the desperate regime has continued to murder dissidents in the months since the failed uprising of January 2026.
In sum, the Iranian conflict is one of the strangest wars of the modern age.
The Iranian regime has suffered terrible material and financial damage.
Its nuclear program is likely in ruins, and its original command-and-control leadership has been destroyed.
The people detest it. The Kurdish minority loathes it. Conditions on the ground are dire, with terrible shortages of food, medicine, and fuel.
The resistance may sense that the Trump administration would double down on kinetic force to finish off the wounded regime if a mass popular uprising emerged and needed support from the air.
Taken together, these possible October surprises before the November midterms could make the next 50 days the most volatile in modern memory.
Discussion (20)
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If I were my favorite Trumpstir I would invite Professor VDH to set on my major domestic & foreign policy councils & President Trump probably has but I would keep asking VDH every other day.
Just read the preface to Victor‘s new book. I was worried about it being complicated. It was completely readable. Very understandable. Very good Flo. The book is going to be amazing. Thank you, Victor.
Many valid questions. All have the same 2 answers. 1 Stay tuned 2 At this point, no one knows
Well thought through however, we may Enumerate, enumerate, list, list, blah, blah, Any result without IRGC elimination is FAILURE. Pure and simple. They will just come BACK tomorrow. Here's the problem, and It is THIS : Muslims divide the entirety of the world into two sections ; that, which is UNDER their thumb, 'the Dar al Islam' and that, which We are Fighting over, because we have Yet to control it, 'The Dar al Harb (War), these mean House of Islam & House of War which means that despite the money, despite the shiny sharkskin suits, despite the Audi cars wrapped in solid gold and silver. & all the Rolex watches, these mental defectives see everything in REAL BLACK & WHITE ! They only know the long game. All 'they' want is total dominance. We are talking some seventh century sophistication . This, after showing blocks and blocks of recently filled body bags, has been accused of murdering 30,000 - 40,0000 so called protesters. What I am telling you, Is this Jihadi B. S. is the identical B.S. going on for the last 1400 years all over the world. And it is all in in the name of their clique staying on a bit longer. Imagine something like these horrible misfortunes happening any where else.....you know, like, England or NYC..What? 😃
Thank you Professor Hanson for another well thought out and clearly explained status of the Iran situation. Succinctly, the 7th century barbaric theocratic regime must go. Ameridcans need no more evidence than 9/11, although there is much more available. No nuclear weapons and delivery systems for Iran until Hell freezes over. Arm the Iranian patriots and provide enough military assistance for these Iranian Patriots to establish a beachhead and eradicate the hated regime by themselves or with other courageous nations willing to assist. Once the regime is eradicated along with the Houthis , the Hormuz strait situation will resolve into an international waterway once again with shipping freely moving.
Thanks for this analysis - we do live in very interesting times, for lack of a better word for it! Keep looking up! The signs of history told in advance in God's Word seems to be setting up on the world's chessboard.
A sufficient number of precision, civilian avoiding, war-ending strikes on military and infrastructure just before the mid-terms could get Iran to surrender just before election day and before the deluge of human tragedy stories that will follow. Your thoughts?
As usual, Old Airborne Dog speaks the truth, but, in the end, I believe Trump intends to seize Kharg Island & take control of Iran's oil industry to mutual benefit, just as done in Venezuela. Our war expenditures wil be reimbursed in some manner. Of course, it's a very different scenario with the entrenched mullahs, requiring a regime change with Persians & Kurds in revolt along with American air support. Again, Trump recently said "to the victor goes the spoils"which requires utter defeat. The Chinese & Russians will be the principal losers in a number of respects, when the U.S. becomes the predominant global energy provider between American, Venezuelan & Iranian sources. Trump will leverage Iranian oil for rare earth minerals from China, until we have alternative sources. At that point, he will lower the boom on Chinese trade practices. American companies will oversee the reconstruction of Iran, while Europeans stand idley by in utter disdain, as usual.
VDH, you are my favorite historian & writer, hands down. Regarding Iran's nukes, the only ones who truly know if they have them are: God, Iran, and the IC (maybe). As far as what is going on in Iran, only the Iranian people and likely Mossad know what's going on, possibly some US IC. We are never going to put boots on the ground in Iran, that would be insane, we'd lose lots of troops. I think the best we can do at this point is keep the straits open if possible and play whack-a-mole with their air defense sites and suspected nuke sites. The mullahs do not care about their own people and will just kill them like flies if they rise up (again). They are just waiting us out until the mid-terms are over. I pray that we retain power but fear we will not. Jan Kubis Prague
Dr. Hanson, info for your consideration - A Michigan group called Prometheus Action has been following the coordinated efforts to undermine Conservatives in the midterm elections with a perspective worth your attention. A common thread to these efforts evolve around the London Financial system (Caribbean banks - Venezuela and Mexico Cartel Drug Money- Maduro), (Iranian Oil - Lloyds of London - insurance and Brent Sea Oil Pricing via Futures Traders, and Mullah money in European Real Estate), Canada Tariff War (Mark Carney - Bank of England), European/England financial support for the Ukraine War and Zelensky's strike on Russian Diesal Oil refineries). Trump's actions have strangled the financial resources of London (see their info on Chattam House's role). Now the returned calls for "Global Controls" (AI? in addition to their efforts in Finance - WEF, Health - WHO, and "Free Trade"? The leader of Prometheus is Susan Kokinas. Maybe your contacts at Hillsdale could check them out for you. Best of Health to you. Love your podcasts and articles.
Hello, Victor! Glad you are well. Donald Trump appears relatively quiet right now, and I think perhaps he is giving Republicans a chance for strong candidates to win the midterms — except maybe the boost he is giving to Ken Paxton. But I think if he loses the house, which he may, the impeachment circus that follows will be so ridiculous that Democrats will ensure their losing EVERYTHING in 2028. But we need to keep the Senate for appointments… Talarico cannot win. Be well, Victor!
We need the end of Iran!
I hope
This is a critical time for our country and for the Mideast. Will this election cycle and the events surrounding it be the 'climax' that changes our course? I do not know but I am anxious about the future even though I tend to be an optimistic person. The future of America is at stake.
Kudos to Trump for fighting a decades overdue necessary war; the bloody chaos in the Middle East spread throughout the world and thousands of murdered Americans is a result of our refusal to accept there is a threat. Previous presidents have mostly ignored it, calculating that it won't explode until they're gone, leaving it as somebody else's problem and blame. On the other hand, my 30 year career in the military leaves me in despair that Trump has gone the old route of past presidents and decided that he knows better how to run a war than the professional generals we have spent decades and millions of dollars developing to fight wars. And so we have the conditions for another "forever war" - where politicians replace the professional military, making the strategic decisions on the conduct of a war based on their amateur theories, domestic political calculus, personal hopes and biases, etc. What general among Trump's JCOS would have suggested to him NOT sealing Iran's ports on the very first day of the war, stopping their ability to sell and export their oil to fund the war (and terrorism). And in doing so stop the import of supplies necessary for the IRGC to continue resisting as best as possible? Which generals did NOT tell Trump to include plans for demining and protecting passage through the Straits Of Hormuz before beginning? Which generals told him if he repeatedly ceased combat operations, giving them time for a respite and to rearm, this apocalyptical Salafist/Wahaabist Muslim sect would finally start thinking like the civilized world and capitulate, bending the knee to make a Trumpian deal? If this is military underwater, upside down 4D chess, I don't have a clue of what strategy is behind it. My only guess is that he so abhors his orders leading to the loss of human life that he avoids total war, hoping soft war will eventually will be a victory with minimal bloodshed. As always, the result is the opposite. I not only fear that Trump's theories on The Art Of Making War will not only cost the GOP the House and what will result from that, but also leave the Mad Mullahs and their dreams of a Caliphate emboldened from successfully surviving war with the USA, and still firmly based in Iran and a threat to the world.
Trump's fatal mistake...a triumph for the Iranian theocracy and the evil democrat party.....the worst consequence will be the opening of the door further for radical democrat socialists to further fundamentally change America.....that is the greatest miscalculation.....and one we are unlikely to recover from...
Trump's fatal mistake...a triumph for the Iranian theocracy and the evil democrat party.....the worst consequence will be the opening of the door further for radical democrat socialists to further fundamentally change America.....that is the greatest miscalculation.....and one we are unlikely to recover from...
Perhaps we will never know, but I'm betting that Iranian government thugs are raiding thousands of homes and stealing everything from food, money, and anything else they want in order to survive. Meanwhile, the starvation and desperation of the general populace continues unabated. This situation is one of the best examples ever to demonstrate the wisdom of the 2nd Amendment! I pray that this evil theocracy will come to an end very soon.
The Iranian Theocracy needs to be crushed militarily. The US needs to unleash the full power of our military on them because total defeat is the only thing that they will ever understand! That’s all they have ever understood in 1400 years that Muslims have been around. They MUST BE SUBDUED WITH BRUTE FORCE!
One need only to read Sun Tzu to understand where the Iranian Republican Guard Corp stands right now. They now understand that they are on "Death's Ground". Hence, they have nothing to lose by continuing the battle until their last dog is dead.