Exhibit A: Final 2020 Wisconsin Poll: Biden by 17%
October 28, 2020 news: “A Washington Post-ABC News poll found that former vice president
Biden is leading Trump 57% to 40% among voters in Wisconsin.”
Exhibit B: Final 2020 Wisconsin Actual Vote Count: Biden by 0.6%
49.4% | 1,630,866
48.8% | 1,610,184
As far as polls, just focus on the few that were the most accurate in 2020, the last time Trump was on the ballot (keeping in mind also the prior Trump under-polling errors of 2016). Those with the lowest error rate were AtlasIntel, Trafalgar, and Rasmussen (https://x.com/atlas_intel?lang=en). All three now have Trump ahead in the national polls and winning enough swing states to take the Electoral College.
If we look at the non-election balloting totals and voter registration data in 2020 versus 2024, the Republicans made much more impressive overall percentage gains in states that count, and in real numbers that exceeded their margins of loss in the 2020 election.
Trump has also made dramatic increases in blue states such as Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota, and New Hampshire (though likely not in enough time to carry these states). Yet in most polls, these surges are not commensurately reflected in the next-door determinative swing states, for example, such as North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin that remain in most polls roughly unchanged and within a point or two. But surely one would expect these Trump upticks also to flow into the nearby states that will be the focus of the election? Why were they not?
This race is supposedly the closest in years, in which the Democrats have vastly outraised the Republicans. Yet it was clear months ago that the election would be decided largely in seven or so states. And in that sense, Trump poured a greater percentage of his smaller war chest into these swing states and has matched Harris in effectiveness.
Second, there is a saturation point in such a small number of states, after which pouring more and more cash does not pay in a cost-to-benefit analysis.
Third, Trump earlier and more intensively ran a seven-swing-state campaign, and he may well have gotten a far greater bang for the buck, especially given his ads were often deemed superior, and he was able to turn performance-art photo ops (e.g., serving at the drive-up window at McDonald’s or riding in the garbage truck) into hundreds of millions of dollars in free publicity.
This year larger sums raised and spent are not as relevant as in what ways and to what end the money was spent, while noting it was focused on just a small number of states.
Endorsements from “experts” and “authorities” mean little. Those from Hollywood celebrities mean even less and may only confirm the aura of Harris elitism. The only endorsements that matter are those from politicos who have real constituents or niche constituencies magnified in close races in just a few swing states. In that regard, a 1-2% influential nod from RFK, Jr. or Tulsi Gabbard probably matters more than a Lebron, Oprah, or Springsteen—and the horde of other Harris glitterati.
Finally, remember how the media and the Left behaved during the Steele dossier hoax, the laptop disinformation farce, the two impeachments, the efforts to jail, bankrupt, or destroy Trump through the lawfare of five civil/criminal indictments/suits, the crazy gambit of 16 states to remove Trump from the ballot, and the Hitler/fascist/tyrant/dictator hysterical slurs and slander both before and after the two failed assassination attempts.
In that context, absorb the media Election Day commentary, the hysterical hype, the very early and exit polls, etc., and consider that “they” are trying to do to Trump today what they have done the last nine years. In other words, wait for the final vote count and do not be swayed by ginned-up media hysterias and cries of “momentum.”
Discussion (11)
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Professor, As a DeKalb County resident within close walking distance of CDC and Emory, voter fraud that has been significant in Atlanta since Maynard Jackson was elected Mayor. During the three month 2020 election drama, salvaging our Senate seats was a focus so I wasted no time on the usual voter fraud, later consoling myself falsely that Biden’s record as merely the usual corrupt politician.. Two years later I sat down with the census and voting data, reached out to others within an hour was chilled to the bone by two factors: 1. In percentages this fraud exceeded the usual fraud by modalities; and 2. It was implemented in a sophisticated, organized and intentional way that is not within the competence of local precinct officials, timed hour by hour in an algorithmic cadence to ensure Biden’s win. I had no concern that the 2024 election was a genuinely close race, and viewed Trump as an electoral landslide except for fraud. But the sound of thunder never goes unnoticed by a farmer’s daughter and this was something else: cannon. Below my home in a hollow above the creek where a battle was fought 150+ years ago a battle was fought in the last continental war on our soil. Daily signals by Obama 2.0 evidenced absolute indifference to our desires, indeed our lives. We are the threat to democracy (their autocracy) and Trump is merely the face of the electorate’s awakening. More heartbreaking was the aggressive hostility and suspicion with which neighbors had begun to treat us, with whom we did not discuss or debate politics. We are not Democrats and we do not support their candidates. That is sufficient, as we know, for Marxism in its iterations to justify any means necessary. This has been a long time coming and it is actually thrilling to be experience historic events in real time, as patriots with purpose and energized for a just and noble cause: restore what Woodrow Wilson began to erode and Obama 2.0 still intends to utterly destroy. What will happen to fiction writers now that reality exceeds imagination and our President is the greatest show on earth?
Thank you VDH! You inspired all of us true conservatives. It's a beautiful day in America! When do they start deporting the illegal alien felons?
Thanks Victor for your wisdom and integrity! Thought I would wait till Nov. 6 to say “Well done!”
Dear VDH. Reading your articles and listening to your podcasts has been a blessing in these dark times. Thank you so much! Please consider to be part of a Trump administration. You the man!
Great advice Mr. VDH! You mention all the free tv "advertisement" Trump generated from the McDonald's Garbage Truck episodes. 100% true and in fact, DJT has been a master of the "free" media exposure since he first ran. He just knows how to tweak the media, develop a Mick D or Trash story and the exposure rolls in. If in fact DJT wins it will really be a dagger into the hearts of the MSM. I believe the standard ols style MSM debates will be over. Fini. Kaput. Going forward it will be "new media" interviews that will rule the information distribution. Sure, there will be some MSM blathering but they will not control the message. Long form Podcasts (Rogan, Theo Vaughn, even Charlamagne 'Tha God etc.) will carry more sway than this tired old 1960's format tv screen media. I read where if Kamala does indeed lose she and all dems will regret her not doing Rogan or even more so, the dem machine's regret for not picking a candidate that can handle two sentences. The dem machine figured the MSM would be able to tell the electorate who she is..............that failed and they should live to regret that.
Good analysis and commentary. I am praying that Americans have good sense in their voting. Trump is not perfect and he is not the savior of the country. He has made mistakes in his previous presidency, but policies and plans for the future are more realistic than Harris. Biden/Harris has made life worst in the past 4 years and not change , if fact will be worst in the next 4 years under Harris, even if the GOP controlled Congress or just the Senate. Harris is very dishonest. In fact more than 90 of her original VP staff have quit. Tells you something about her character.
VDH, I have always said to you, “keep pounding away” and you did that with your essay’s throughout the 2024 Presidential campaign. I heard you say “I hope people don’t get mad at me for repeating the same things over and over” but that is what we all needed. The service you did for Americans in all of your essay's in 2024 was invaluable. You never made us forget what was at stake, and in turn, we never grew complacent. I am sure you will see the results of your efforts, when Donald Trump wins the Presidency tonight. Thank you VDH.
VDH, I have always said to you, "keep pounding away" and you did that with your essay's throughout the 2024 Presidential campaign. I heard you say "I hope people don't get mad at me for repeating the same things over and over" but that is what we all needed. The service you did by "pounding POaway
Hope it's too big to rig.